Commodity fundamentals
Explore capacity, production, inventories and downstream demand for methanol, ethylene glycol and soda ash. Separate short-term market reactions from persistent changes.
RESEARCH / MARKETS & METHODS
Study the price.
Question its conditions.
My research interests span commodity fundamentals, derivatives and credit analysis.
Contract structure
Consider spot–futures relationships and nearby versus deferred contracts. For options, examine volatility, time value and strategy suitability.
Credit & company analysis
Use financial data to examine profitability, cash flow and credit risk, drawing on experience in financial-statement data preparation and credit research.
RESEARCH APPROACH
Three questions behind a market view.
What explains it?
Identify observable changes in supply, demand, costs and expectations. Ask what evidence supports the view.
Where is it expressed?
Consider which contract, maturity or instrument reflects the thesis, and what its structure adds to the analysis.
What would invalidate it?
Examine adverse scenarios, position sizing, margin requirements, time decay and tail risk.
PERSONAL PROJECT
Qiyan — commodity research workspace.
An initial research tool for organizing contract prices, basis comparisons and reports across three commodity markets.
The project is a developing prototype. Some prices are historical snapshots; automated data retrieval is still being improved.